UP-Macro Lab

Regulation and bank lending in South Africa: A narrative index approach

Publish Date: 2024

Author: X. Sibande, D. Nxumalo, K. Mncube, S. Koch, N. Viegi.</a>

With the continued introduction and enhancements to prudential regulations with the aim of strengthening banking systems, a natural question arises as to whether prudential regulation is a hindrance to credit extension and / or access to credit, especially in emerging markets? This study thereof estimates and contrasts the impact of macroprudential and financial inclusion policies. The results suggest that macroprudential policy is working as intended as it is associated with increases in interest rates on unsecured lending rates, decreases in short-term secured and mortgage lending rates.

Can monetary and fiscal policy account for South Africa’s economic stagnation?

Publish Date: 19-01-2024

Authors: Tumisang Loate, Nicola Viegi

Historical relationships between the macro-fiscal variables indicate a much higher economic growth in South Africa. We explore the role of both fiscal and monetray policy and find little evidence that the realised low economic growth can be rationed by the two policies, especially monetary policy.

Policy Communications and Market Reactions: Evidence for the SARB

Publish Date: 2023

Author Charl van Schoor

After the GFC central banks turned to communication strategies in order to anchor expectations. A decade on, the question remains whether communication can be used in such a way. We explore the relationship between SARB MPC statements and market surprises at a text-data level, and find that overal the implimentation of forward looking language has reduced overal shocks